TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Zacatecas and Cancun FC, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time. Different thresholds define whether the market settles positively for each potential winner.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Zacatecas vs Cancun FC professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer match scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Zacatecas winning by more than 2.5 goals, Zacatecas winning by more than 1.5 goals, Cancun FC winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Cancun FC winning by more than 2.5 goals. Whichever condition is met first determines the market resolution. All markets are independent of official league affiliations, and trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders on Kalshi, aims to reflect the true probability of an event occurring. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market’s odds evolve in real-time as new information and opinions are factored in by participants. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as the event draws closer and more trading activity occurs.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread is determined by the difference in prices between contracts representing different sides of the outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly, offering a real-time view of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Zacatecas vs Cancun FC match, specifically the spread, will be used to determine the winning contracts. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment. The resolution process relies on publicly available and verifiable data to ensure a transparent and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can cause price fluctuations. Finally, public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators and experts might also contribute to shifts in the market’s pricing as the event approaches.