TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:04 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team secures a lead beyond specific run thresholds, reflecting the competitive balance and performance of the teams during the match.
The event encompasses four distinct outcome scenarios based on the run differential between the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and the Yomiuri Giants in their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each scenario defines a specific winning condition: the Yomiuri Giants winning by more than 2.5 runs, the Yomiuri Giants winning by more than 1.5 runs, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars winning by more than 1.5 runs, or the Yokohama DeNA BayStars winning by more than 2.5 runs. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the respective condition that is met during the game. All scenarios are evaluated against the same official game, and the rules clarify that the platform hosting the event is not officially affiliated with the governing league, with all trademarks and brand names belonging to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on their own analysis, while this market aggregates the insights of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing an outcome, they can express that view by trading on Kalshi, potentially driving the odds closer to what they perceive as the true probability. However, sportsbook odds can still offer value, particularly when they diverge significantly from the prediction market prices.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated view of expectations, driven entirely by trader activity and their interpretation of available information regarding the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and Yomiuri Giants.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the final spread result of the Yokohama DeNA BayStars versus the Yomiuri Giants game. The platform will verify the result against official sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the final spread. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or weather forecasts impacting the game could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in prior games, or even public statements from team managers, could also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate a shift in expectations, prompting others to reassess their positions and potentially move the market in a new direction.