TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 11:20 AM EST
Kalshi
The contest centers on which team wins and by how much, with different markets requiring varying margins of victory. Outcomes hinge on the difference between final scores, not just which team triumphs.
Markets resolve according to the margin of victory in the designated NPB game. A market resolves to Yes if the winning team’s score exceeds the opponent’s by more than the specified run line (2.5 or 1.5 runs) as defined in each individual market. If the Fukuoka Hawks win by more than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes; if they win by more than 1.5 runs (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the Yokohama DeNA BayStars win by more than 1.5 runs, the third market resolves to Yes, and by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets are evaluated against the same game and timestamp.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis from a wider range of sources than traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professional oddsmakers, this market allows anyone to trade and express their beliefs about the likely outcome. You may find that the odds on Kalshi align with sportsbook lines, especially as the event approaches, but differences can emerge based on unique insights or reactions to news and events impacting the game. It’s useful to compare both to inform your own assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of the Fukuoka Hawks winning by over 1.5 runs. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the likelihood of that outcome, and traders can profit by correctly predicting the result. The more traders believe an outcome will occur, the higher the contract price will rise.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the final score differential between the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and the Fukuoka Hawks in the specified game. The winning team and the margin of victory will be used to determine whether the Fukuoka Hawks won by over 1.5 runs, as defined by this market. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on the actual result.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Yokohama DeNA BayStars or the Fukuoka Hawks would likely cause movement. Changes in pitching matchups, weather forecasts affecting the game, or even significant shifts in public sentiment based on pre-game analysis could all influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or player availability would also be key catalysts. Monitoring these signals leading up to Oct 27, 2026 will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.