TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 3:40 PM EST
Kalshi
Two esports teams, Yellow Submarine and Dawn Bulls, will compete in a Dota 2 match during the EPL Masters Play-In 2026. The focus is on whether Yellow Submarine can secure a victory in the second map of this match.
The market resolves based on the outcome of map 2 in the specified Dota 2 match. If Yellow Submarine wins map 2, the market resolves to Yes for that outcome; if Dawn Bulls wins, it resolves to Yes for theirs. Postponements, cancellations, or forfeitures before play begins result in resolution at the fair market price. If a map begins and is later forfeited, the result follows the official governing body decision. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks due to the differing incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, while prediction markets reflect the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially when a significant amount of information isn't yet publicly available. It’s common to see this market diverge from initial sportsbook lines as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions, potentially revealing insights not captured by conventional bookmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe an outcome is likely, the price of its corresponding contract increases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide insights into the confidence levels of participants, and the evolving prices demonstrate the collective assessment of the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of Map 2 in the Yellow Submarine vs. Dawn Bulls match. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding team rosters, player form, strategic changes, or even unexpected in-game developments could shift trader sentiment. Major upsets in other matches involving these teams, or broader shifts in the competitive landscape, could also influence prices. Furthermore, significant volume spikes, driven by informed traders or large bets, could indicate new information or a change in perceived probabilities, leading to substantial price movements in this market.