TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 9:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the specific round in which either Yana Santos or Luana Santos secures a decisive victory in their scheduled UFC Fight Night bout. Outcomes include wins by knockout, technical knockout, submission, disqualification in any of the first three rounds, as well as decisions, draws, or no contests across the full fight duration.
The event determines whether Yana Santos or Luana Santos achieves a victory via knockout (KO), technical knockout (TKO), submission, or disqualification (DQ) within a specified round of their UFC Fight Night match scheduled for October 31, 2026, or if the fight concludes by decision, draw, or no contest across all rounds. Each market corresponds to a specific round (Rounds 1, 2, or 3) for either fighter winning by the listed methods, with a separate market for decision/draw/no contest outcomes. A technical decision is explicitly treated as a decision for settlement purposes and does not count as a round-specific win. The markets resolve based on the official fight result as declared by the governing league, with all trademarks and brand names belonging to their respective owners. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, which can differ from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Often, prediction markets can be more accurate than traditional odds, as they incorporate a wider range of perspectives and can adjust rapidly to changing circumstances. Comparing these odds can provide valuable insights into public perception and potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Santos vs. Santos fight. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect a collective assessment of the likely result. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and interest in each possible outcome. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Round of Victory in the Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos fight, as determined by the event organizers and reported by widely recognized sports news sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome will be considered the winner for the purposes of market settlement. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market leading up to Nov 1, 2026. Any news regarding the fighters’ training, health, or potential injuries would likely have a significant impact. Changes in public perception, fueled by media coverage or social media discussions, could also shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about the fight’s rules or venue might also cause fluctuations. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a change in market sentiment and drive price adjustments. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves.