TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 9:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a scheduled UFC fight between Yana Santos and Luana Santos set for October 31, 2026. It focuses on how quickly the fight concludes, specifically whether it ends before certain rounds. The result depends on the actual progression of the bout during the event.
The market resolves based on how early the Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos UFC fight ends. If the fight concludes before Round 2, the first market condition is met. Alternatively, if the fight ends before Round 3, the second condition is satisfied. Both conditions are evaluated against the actual fight duration on October 31, 2026. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The resolution hinges solely on the fight’s actual timing relative to the specified round thresholds.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the fighters' capabilities. It’s common to see prediction markets move more efficiently with new information than sportsbooks, potentially offering value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Santos vs Santos fight. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of expectations. The current market price represents the cost to take a position on a particular result.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the fight, determining which fighter is declared the winner. The platform will rely on established sources to verify the outcome and settle the market accordingly. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several signals could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected analysis from MMA experts or shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls, could also play a role. Furthermore, as the fight draws closer, any information about fighter weight or physical condition will likely impact the market. These factors contribute to the dynamic pricing of contracts until the event concludes.