TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 9:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks how the upcoming UFC fight between Yana Santos and Luana Santos concludes. It covers all possible outcomes including knockout, submission, decision, or a draw/no contest. The result depends entirely on the official end result declared by UFC officials after the bout.
The market resolves to Yes if the official result of the Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos UFC Fight Night bout scheduled for October 31, 2026, falls under any of the four defined categories: KO/TKO/DQ, Submission, Decision, or Draw/No Contest. Each primary rule specifies one resolution condition, and any one of these conditions being met will trigger a Yes outcome. The secondary rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the UFC or its governing bodies, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners. The market effectively consolidates all possible fight conclusions into a single resolution framework.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks may set initial lines to attract action, while this market allows traders to continuously update their assessments based on new information and evolving opinions. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when there's considerable uncertainty surrounding the outcome. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into where the market believes the true probability lies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities, driven entirely by the collective intelligence of the traders on the platform. The current market reflects the aggregated beliefs of those actively trading contracts for the Santos vs. Santos fight.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially declared method of finish for the Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos fight. This includes determining whether the fight concludes by knockout, technical knockout, submission, decision, or disqualification. The outcome will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authority, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding the fighters’ training, injuries, or changes in their fight strategies could shift the odds. Public statements from the fighters or their coaches, as well as expert analysis, could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected developments in the lead-up to the fight, such as changes in weight class or venue, could also lead to price adjustments. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of each potential method of finish has the potential to move this market.