TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 28, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 40 separate price-level thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance spot XRP/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index) and resolution structures (binary Up/Down vs. 40 threshold-based Yes/No markets). Settlement values will not align.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate, non-hedging markets. Polymarket resolves on Binance exchange data; Kalshi resolves on a third-party real-time index. Price discovery and settlement timing may differ. Confirm your data source preference before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down resolution based on whether the XRP/USDT 1-hour candle close price is greater than or equal to the open price on Binance. Uses spot exchange data from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
40 separate Yes/No markets, each resolving Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (0.8999 through 1.6799). Uses real-time index data, not spot exchange. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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