TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$10,206
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on March 14, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses Chainlink's XRP/USD data stream to compare end-of-period price against start-of-period price, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) measured at 5:00 PM EDT only, with multiple threshold-based Yes/No outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement concepts: Polymarket resolves on directional price movement across a 4-hour window using Chainlink data, while Kalshi resolves on absolute price levels at a single point (5:00 PM EDT) using CF Benchmarks data. The time windows, data sources, and resolution methodologies do not align.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate, non-hedgeable markets. Polymarket requires you to predict whether XRP closes higher than it opens during 4:00–8:00 PM ET. Kalshi requires you to predict whether XRP's 60-second average at 5:00 PM EDT exceeds specific price thresholds. Confirm your broker's data source preference and your own risk tolerance for source divergence before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down directional bet over 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Resolves Up if end price >= start price using Chainlink XRP/USD oracle. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: 40 independent Yes/No threshold markets, all resolving at 5:00 PM EDT based on 60-second average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI. Each market asks: Is the average above [specific threshold]? Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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