TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 11, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 40 discrete price band outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct price indices and measurement methodologies create settlement value mismatch. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot candle data; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average. Outcomes may not correlate.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets with different underlying assets. Polymarket outcome depends on Binance candle mechanics (open/close comparison); Kalshi outcome depends on which of 40 price bands the RTI average falls into. Price divergence between Binance spot and CF Benchmarks RTI is possible and historically observed. Hedge or arbitrage only if you have confidence in both data sources.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at March 11, 5 PM ET. Uses Binance spot market data exclusively. Key Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
40 discrete Yes outcomes based on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT on March 11, 2026. Price bands span 1.02000 to >1.7799 in 0.02 increments. Each band resolves Yes independently. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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