TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 3, 2026. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot prices, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 50 distinct price-level thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 50 distinct price thresholds derived from CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index. These platforms will produce different outcomes for the same event.Hero Tip:
Do not assume arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi on this event. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on a single candle comparison (close >= open), while Kalshi's 50 separate Yes/No markets each trigger at different price levels. A price movement that resolves YES on one Kalshi threshold may not align with Polymarket's Up resolution. Verify which platform's settlement source (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks index) matches your risk model before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open and close prices. Market resolves YES (Up) if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at April 3, 5PM ET, otherwise NO (Down). Single binary outcome determined by one comparison: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 50 separate price threshold markets. Each market resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of XRPUSD_RTI before 5PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 0.7999 to 1.7799). Thresholds are independent; multiple Kalshi markets can resolve YES simultaneously based on a single price reading: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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