TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$7,470
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down during a 4-hour window on April 3, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses a simple directional comparison (end price vs. start price) via Chainlink's XRP/USD feed, while Kalshi employs a granular price-band resolution mechanism tied to CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index at 5 PM EDT.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct resolution mechanisms operate on different price indices (Chainlink vs. CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI), at different times (Polymarket: 4–8 PM ET window; Kalshi: 5 PM EDT snapshot), and with different outcome structures (binary directional vs. 42 discrete price bands). A single XRP price movement could satisfy one market's criteria while failing the other's.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket rewards directional accuracy over a 4-hour span; Kalshi rewards precise price-level prediction at a single moment (5 PM EDT). Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if price bands and directional moves diverge. Always confirm the exact data feed and timestamp your platform is using before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves Up if XRP/USD price at 8:00 PM ET ≥ price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise Down. Uses Chainlink XRP/USD data stream as sole source. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: 42 discrete price-band outcomes. Resolves Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT falls within any of 42 defined bands (e.g., 0.84–0.8599, 1.02–1.0399, etc.), or below 0.82000, or above 1.7799. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [band] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.