TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure different aspects of XRP price movement using different data sources and methodologies. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI with 40 absolute price thresholds; Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT candle open/close comparison. These cannot be reconciled into a single unified outcome.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as interchangeable markets. Kalshi is a price-level betting structure (40 separate Yes/No outcomes based on thresholds); Polymarket is a directional bet (Up if close >= open, Down otherwise). They measure different things at different times using different sources. Verify which platform matches your trading intent before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) measured as a 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT on April 25, 2026. Resolves Yes if this average exceeds any of 40 specified price thresholds (0.9999, 1.0199, 1.0399, 1.0599, 1.0799, 1.0999, 1.1199, 1.1399, 1.1599, 1.1799, 1.1999, 1.2199, 1.2399, 1.2599, 1.2799, 1.2999, 1.3199, 1.3399, 1.3599, 1.3799, 1.3999, 1.4199, 1.4399, 1.4599, 1.4799, 1.4999, 1.5199, 1.5399, 1.5599, 1.5799, 1.5999, 1.6199, 1.6399, 1.6599, 1.6799, 1.6999, 1.7199, 1.7399, 1.7599, 1.7799). Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle data. Resolves to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 25, 2026; otherwise resolves to Down. Single binary outcome based on directional comparison. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
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