TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, methodologies, and price references. Polymarket resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 50 distinct price-level thresholds. These sources will produce different settlement values and outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume the same outcome across platforms. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on Binance candle data, while Kalshi's 50 separate markets each resolve based on whether the CF Benchmarks RTI 60-second average exceeds specific price thresholds. A price movement that resolves YES on one platform may resolve NO on the other due to source and methodology differences.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle comparison. Market resolves YES (Up) if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at April 10, 5PM ET; otherwise NO (Down). Uses single binary outcome. Source: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 50 separate price-level markets. Each market resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of XRPUSD_RTI before 5PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 0.7999 to 1.7799). Uses multiple outcome-dependent markets rather than a single binary. Source: 'The simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT.'
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