TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:52 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Akira Santillan in the Wuning 3, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castelnuovo' if Luca Castelnuovo advances against Akira Santillan. This market will resolve to 'Akira Santillan' if Akira Santillan advances against Luca Castelnuovo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Akira Santillan in the Wuning 3, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castelnuovo' if Luca Castelnuovo advances against Akira Santillan. This market will resolve to 'Akira Santillan' if Akira Santillan advances against Luca Castelnuovo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ that can differ from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows traders to express their true beliefs about the outcome of the Castelnuovo vs Santillan fight. This can lead to discrepancies, with prediction markets sometimes offering more accurate probabilities, especially when there’s significant public information available. It's common to see differences in implied probabilities between this market and those offered by conventional sportsbooks.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Wuning 3 fight between Luca Castelnuovo and Akira Santillan, as declared by the relevant sporting authority. The market will determine which fighter won the bout, and payouts will be distributed accordingly based on the final, official result. Traders should monitor official sources for the definitive outcome of the fight.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the fight’s location or rules could also have an impact. Any significant developments related to the physical condition or preparation of either Luca Castelnuovo or Akira Santillan are likely to cause fluctuations in the probabilities reflected in this market. Public analysis and expert opinions could also influence trading.