TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 3:05 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Fajing Sun and Alibek Kachmazov in the Wuning 3, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fajing Sun' if Fajing Sun advances against Alibek Kachmazov. This market will resolve to 'Alibek Kachmazov' if Alibek Kachmazov advances against Fajing Sun. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Fajing Sun and Alibek Kachmazov in the Wuning 3, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fajing Sun' if Fajing Sun advances against Alibek Kachmazov. This market will resolve to 'Alibek Kachmazov' if Alibek Kachmazov advances against Fajing Sun. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can differ from sportsbook odds set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting patterns and risk management into their lines, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when there’s considerable uncertainty surrounding the Fajing Sun vs Kachmazov match. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Fajing Sun vs Kachmazov match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of occurring. The platform’s design incentivizes accurate predictions, as traders profit from correctly anticipating the event’s result.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Fajing Sun vs Kachmazov match as reported by the governing sporting body. The platform will then determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the result. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome will be verified.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market before Oct 16, 2026. News regarding injuries to either Fajing Sun or Alibek Kachmazov would likely have a significant impact. Any announcements about changes to the match schedule, venue, or rules could also cause movement. Public commentary from analysts or experts offering their predictions could sway trader sentiment, as could significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks. Unexpected developments in either athlete’s recent performance or training could also move this market.