TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:11 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Egor Agafonov and Maxim Zhukov in the Wuning 3, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Egor Agafonov' if Egor Agafonov advances against Maxim Zhukov. This market will resolve to 'Maxim Zhukov' if Maxim Zhukov advances against Egor Agafonov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Egor Agafonov and Maxim Zhukov in the Wuning 3, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Egor Agafonov' if Egor Agafonov advances against Maxim Zhukov. This market will resolve to 'Maxim Zhukov' if Maxim Zhukov advances against Egor Agafonov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a broader range of information and incentives than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while prediction markets aim to represent the true probability of an event occurring, as determined by traders. However, discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of information available to each group, or varying risk appetites. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, particularly in response to breaking news or shifts in public opinion regarding the Wuning 3 fight.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Wuning 3 fight. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome being correct. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current implied probability of a specific outcome is represented by the share price, and traders can profit if their prediction proves accurate. The market's price is driven by supply and demand for these shares.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Wuning 3 fight between Egor Agafonov and Maxim Zhukov, as determined by the event organizers and reported by reputable sports news sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the result of this market. Traders should monitor news sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding the fighters’ training, health, or potential injuries would likely impact the odds. Official announcements about changes to the fight card, such as a postponement or cancellation, would also have a substantial effect. Public statements from analysts or experts offering their predictions, or shifts in betting patterns at traditional sportsbooks, could influence trader behavior on Polymarket. Unexpected developments in the lead-up to the Wuning 3 fight could all contribute to price fluctuations.