TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market determines which wide receiver will achieve the highest fantasy points in a specific week of the NFL season using a standard scoring system. The outcome is based solely on individual player performance, with points awarded for various statistical categories achieved during the designated game week.
All markets resolve based on Sleeper's total full-PPR fantasy points for Week 4 of the 2026 NFL regular season, including overtime. Each market specifies a particular wide receiver; if that player finishes with the highest points among all WRs for that week, the market resolves to Yes. Rankings include all eligible WRs, even those without a listed market. Players who do not participate in Week 4 are considered to have scored zero points. If multiple players tie for the highest points, the market resolves to 1/N where N equals the number of tied players, with no holder receiving $1 minus the Yes payout. Points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, defensive/special teams performances, and individual player special teams/fumbles as detailed in the scoring format.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of how each type of market operates. It's common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding player performance.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a particular wide receiver will be the top performer. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of each player's potential for success in Week 4. The market efficiently incorporates new data and opinions.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official fantasy point totals for each wide receiver in Week 4 of the NFL season, as calculated by a major fantasy football provider. The player with the highest verified fantasy point total will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution process ensures an objective and transparent determination of the outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports are a major catalyst; news of a key injury to a top wide receiver would likely shift probabilities. Changes in quarterback performance or offensive strategies could also influence expectations. Unexpected matchups or weather conditions impacting passing games could also move the market. Finally, any significant news regarding player health, personal issues, or coaching decisions could all contribute to shifts in trading activity and price adjustments within this market.