TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Wizards vs. Heat
Volume:
$5,663,546
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 4 at 3:00PM ET: If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive, detailed resolution rules across 149 markets with specific thresholds, sources, and edge-case handling (postponement, cancellation, overtime inclusion). Kalshi provides only a single binary market with no resolution details, thresholds, or source specification, creating a fundamental data integrity failure and making Kalshi's market unresolvable without additional clarification.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's market without explicit confirmation of its resolution rules. Polymarket's 149 markets offer granular settlement logic (spread thresholds, player prop benchmarks, halftime vs full-game scoring, cancellation protocols). Kalshi's single market lacks any of these details and may resolve differently or not at all if the game is postponed or canceled. Verify Kalshi's postponement and cancellation clauses directly with the platform before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 149 separate markets covering moneyline (Wizards vs Heat), spreads (Heat -14.5 through -35.5), over/unders (245.5 through 289.5 points), first-half markets, and individual player props (points, rebounds, assists). Each market specifies exact resolution thresholds, sources (official NBA box score on NBA.com), and edge-case handling: 'If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.' Overtime periods are explicitly included in all calculations.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides a single binary market ('If Miami wins the Washington at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Washington wins the Washington at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.') with no resolution source, no postponement/cancellation protocol, no tie-breaking rule, and no specification of whether overtime is included. The market structure is logically incomplete: both outcomes resolve to Yes, leaving no path to a No resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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