TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 9:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of a college football game between Wisconsin and UCLA. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that determines the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential exclusively during the second quarter of the Wisconsin vs UCLA college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the quarter by more than the designated point margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, the markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. All outcomes depend solely on second-quarter performance, with no consideration given to points scored in other quarters.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It's common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. For example, a price of 60 means a contract costs 60, and implies a 60% probability of UCLA winning the 2nd quarter by more than 7.5 points. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders’ actions – buying and selling – directly influence the price, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Wisconsin vs UCLA 2nd quarter spread, as determined by official game statistics. The winning side and margin will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether UCLA won the 2nd quarter by more than 7.5 points, triggering payout for those who predicted that outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key players on either the Wisconsin or UCLA teams would likely cause movement. Significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or updated team statistics, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected weather conditions, or even late-breaking news about team strategy, could also lead to changes in the price as traders adjust their predictions before Oct 18, 2026.