TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 9:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of a college football game between Wisconsin and UCLA. Each market corresponds to a specific margin by which either team might win during the first half, allowing participants to assess the potential dominance of one team over the other in the opening period.
All markets resolve based solely on the points scored during the first half of the Wisconsin vs UCLA college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. For any market where the specified team wins by more than the stated point margin in the first half, that market resolves to 'Yes.' If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the official first-half result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty introduced by the postponement. The markets cover a range of point differentials for both teams, from narrow victories (e.g., Wisconsin or UCLA winning by over 1.5 points) to substantial margins (e.g., over 17.5 points), allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of competitive imbalance in the first half.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals buying and selling contracts based on their beliefs. It’s common to see prediction markets react quickly to news or events that might cause sportsbooks to adjust their lines more slowly. Discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers set the price of contracts. The price represents the probability that the spread will fall on the buyer's side at the end of the first half. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the volume available at different price points, indicating the strength of conviction among traders. The current price reflects the collective assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-half spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final official result declared by the governing body of the game. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment. The platform will determine the winning contracts based on this official result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Wisconsin or UCLA teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also impact the market. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team lineups could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, as the game approaches, any late-breaking news or analysis from sports commentators could contribute to price fluctuations.