TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 10:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether UCLA will win its college football game against Wisconsin. Currently, the probability of UCLA winning on Kalshi is 96.0%, while Wisconsin winning is at 3.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the Wisconsin vs UCLA college football game originally scheduled for October 16, 2026, as determined by the final score. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market resolves to Yes if UCLA wins the contest scheduled for October 16, 2026, and will be settled by October 17, 2026.
The market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins the game as scheduled. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks are property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to differing information and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. Often, as an event approaches, this market’s odds will converge with those of sportsbooks as more information becomes available and public opinion solidifies. However, discrepancies can still emerge, potentially offering opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price rises, indicating increased belief in that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and forecast the event’s result.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Wisconsin vs UCLA game, as reported by a widely recognized sports data source. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the resolution process.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the game. News regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Wisconsin or UCLA would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected team performance in preceding games could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, major weather forecasts for the game location, or even significant public betting patterns observed in sportsbooks, could all contribute to movement in this market. Any information that alters perceptions of each team's chances of winning has the potential to move the market.