TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets on who will win the gold medal in Men's 500m Speed Skating at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Polymarket offers individual participant-level markets, while Kalshi offers country-level markets. Both resolve based on the official IOC medal award at the time of the podium ceremony.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses individual participant resolution with 15 undefined placeholders, while Kalshi uses country-level resolution. Scope and granularity differ, and Polymarket lacks clarity on placeholder participant identity.Hero Tip:
Traders should avoid Polymarket placeholder markets (Placeholder 1-15) until identities are confirmed. Kalshi provides country-level clarity but lacks explicit edge-case rules. If a non-listed country wins, Polymarket resolves 'Other' while Kalshi resolves 'No' on all 12 country markets—this creates a gap. Monitor IOC official announcements and verify all participant identities before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves on individual named participants (e.g., Jordan Stolz, Laurent Dubreuil) plus 15 undefined placeholders. Includes 'someone else' catch-all. Resolves 'No' if participant is eliminated per IOC rules. Resolves 'Other' if event postponed after March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or no gold medal declared by deadline. Tie-breaking: alphabetical order of participant names. Source: olympics.com.Kalshi:
Resolves on country-level outcomes (12 countries: Italy, Estonia, Canada, China PR, United States, Poland, Norway, Netherlands, Kazakhstan, Japan, Spain, Korea Republic). Binary Yes/No per country. No explicit rules for postponement, cancellation, tie-breaking, or non-listed country winners. Source not specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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