TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 12:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Wimbledon and Stevenage. The result will be determined by the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time. The event specifically focuses on identifying the winning team or if the game ends in a draw.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Wimbledon vs Stevenage professional EFL League One soccer match scheduled for October 3, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, while a 'Tie' outcome is triggered if both teams finish level. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve at a fair price. The resolution excludes extra time and penalty shootouts, focusing solely on the regular-time result. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league or teams involved.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a more informed consensus than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the wisdom of the crowd. If prediction market odds significantly diverge from sportsbook lines, it may indicate that traders possess information not yet fully priced into the sportsbook’s offerings, or that the market is identifying a different probability of an outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and discrepancies can occur due to differing methodologies and market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, signaling growing confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a decentralized mechanism, meaning prices are determined solely by supply and demand from traders, not by a central authority setting odds. This dynamic pricing allows the market to rapidly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Wimbledon vs Stevenage match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sporting body. The platform will then determine the winning contract and distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when and how this market will be settled. It’s important to note that the platform’s process ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team form, player injuries, or changes in coaching staff for either Wimbledon or Stevenage could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially affecting the style of play and influencing the outcome. Major upsets in other related matches or broader sporting events might also indirectly impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could cause noticeable price movements, reflecting new information or strategic positioning.