TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 4:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Wimbledon and Mansfield, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold set in different markets. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct markets, each defining a specific winning margin threshold for either Wimbledon or Mansfield in their EFL League One soccer match scheduled for October 20, 2026. All markets resolve based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty outcomes. If Wimbledon wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. The second market resolves to Yes if Wimbledon wins by more than 1.5 goals, regardless of whether the margin meets the stricter 2.5-goal threshold. For Mansfield, the third market resolves to Yes if they win by more than 1.5 goals, and the fourth market resolves to Yes if they win by more than 2.5 goals. Each market operates independently, meaning a single match outcome can satisfy multiple market conditions simultaneously. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into the odds. This market, however, is driven by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. As a result, you may find that the implied probabilities from Kalshi differ from those offered by sportsbooks, potentially reflecting different information or interpretations of the teams' strengths and weaknesses. It’s valuable to compare both to form a well-rounded view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Wimbledon vs Mansfield match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of the expected result. The current price reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Wimbledon vs Mansfield match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual goal difference achieved in the game. The market will settle to 100 if Wimbledon wins by more than 2.5 goals, and 0 if they win by 2.5 goals or less. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 21, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Wimbledon or Mansfield would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or pre-match team news could also cause the market to react. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on the match outcome is crucial for informed trading in this market.