TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.2b

24H VOL:

$220,210,861

24H TRANSACTIONS:

950,106,883

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,090,266,929

827,536

Markets across

14,902

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

919

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Will Nansen launch a token by ___?
Crypto
polymarket
predict
opinion

Will Nansen launch a token by ___? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$30,775,882
Volume 24h:
$240
1,897%
Liquidity:
$30,884
1%
Open interest:
$14,453N/A
PredictionHero
December 31, 2027 36%
polymarket
December 31, 2026 24%
opinion
December 31, 2026 21%
polymarket
Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 202620406080100

Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?

36%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 40¢ buys you 250 shares | Odds: 36% Total Payout: $250 | Net Profit: $150 Multiplier: 2.50x | ROI: 150% | APY: 87% Low liquidity 534 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether Nansen, a blockchain analytics platform, will launch an officially tradable governance token by specific dates. Across Polymarket, Predict, and Opinion, the consensus probability for a token launch by December 31, 2027 stands at 43.0%, with an identical 43.0% probability assigned to launch by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official Nansen announcements with secondary validation from credible reporting sources. Watch for any official token launch announcements from Nansen, as the resolution window closes on December 31, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical resolution criteria requiring active, publicly transferable and tradable token launch by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, with announcements explicitly excluded.Primary resolution logic: Official Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) announcements; secondary validation via consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be officially launched by Nansen
  • Token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable
  • Announcements, pre-launch phases, or locked tokens do not qualify
  • Resolution deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in each market title
  • YES if all conditions met by deadline; NO otherwise

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Announcement without trading: If Nansen announces a token but it is not yet actively tradable by the deadline, the market resolves NO
  • Limited or restricted trading: If the token is launched but trading is restricted (e.g., only to accredited investors, locked liquidity, or non-public exchanges), the market resolves NO unless it is actively and publicly transferable
  • Multiple token launches: If Nansen launches multiple tokens, YES if any one meets the criteria of being a governance token that is actively and publicly transferable and tradable
  • Source conflict: If official Nansen sources conflict with credible reporting, official Nansen sources take precedence; if both are unclear, consensus of credible reporting determines resolution
Timing: Resolution occurs at 11:59 PM ET on each market's specified date (March 31, June 30, September 30, December 31, 2026, and December 31, 2027). Earlier markets (shorter timelines) may resolve YES and make later markets automatically YES if the token launches before their deadlines.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the Nansen token launch event across Polymarket and Predict. It displays consensus probability estimates, total group volume of $30,775,882, and 24-hour activity of $240 to reflect market conviction. By tracking multiple venues simultaneously, the dashboard surfaces whether traders across platforms agree on launch timing or diverge in their expectations, helping you spot consensus shifts and liquidity concentration in real time.

Prediction market odds reflect traders' probabilistic views on Nansen token launch timing, independent of any current spot price. These odds are derived from real capital at risk across Polymarket and Predict, making them forward-looking indicators of community conviction. Spot price expectations, by contrast, price existing tokens or assets. The prediction markets here isolate the binary launch event, allowing you to assess whether the market believes Nansen will execute by specific deadlines.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict may show different odds due to variations in user base composition, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket currently reflects 36.0% for its top outcome, while Predict shows 17.0%, a spread of 19.0 percentage points. Differences can also stem from timing of major news, regional trader preferences, or how each platform's community interprets Nansen's public statements and development roadmap.

Key catalysts include official Nansen announcements regarding tokenomics, governance structure, or launch timing; regulatory clarity on token issuance; major product milestones or partnerships; community governance votes; and competitive pressure from similar analytics platforms. Market sentiment may also shift on macroeconomic conditions affecting crypto fundraising, changes in Nansen's leadership or strategy, or unexpected delays in development. Social media, blog posts, and on-chain activity serve as early signals.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.19.2PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.