TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Will Nansen launch a token by ___?
polymarket
predict
opinion

Will Nansen launch a token by ___?

Total volume:
$30,846,142
Volume 24h:
$62,866N/A
Liquidity:
$17,303
10%
Open interest:
$9,087N/A

December 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

December 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?

26%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 26¢ buys you 385 shares | Odds: 26% Total Payout: $385 | Net Profit: $285 Multiplier: 3.85x | ROI: 285% | APY: 203% Low liquidity 443 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31, 2027

Trade
26%
Yes 26¢No 75¢
1¢
$496
$74,980
0.04%
0.04%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
opinion

December 31, 2026

Trade
10%
Yes 13.9¢No 90¢
3.9¢
N/A
$1,624,614
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
predict

December 31, 2026

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
$10,252
$32,914
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
$3,008
$32,030
0%
0.17%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
9.9%
Yes 9.6¢No 92.7¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 3.9¢
opinion

March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,710,053
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
No
opinion

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,481,724
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
No
polymarket

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,541
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,648
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
No
opinion

September 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,598,927
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
No
polymarket

September 30, 2026

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119,474
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

September 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3,546
$40,548
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
No
polymarket

March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$70,690
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of blockchain analytics platform Nansen launching an officially tradable governance token by December 31, 2027. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket, Predict, and Opinion is 25.5%, with a 10% probability assigned to a launch by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official announcements from Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) and validated by credible reporting. Keep an eye on Nansen’s official communications leading up to the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2028, to see if any signals emerge regarding a potential token launch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical resolution criteria requiring active, publicly transferable and tradable token launch by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, with announcements explicitly excluded.Primary resolution logic: Official Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) announcements; secondary validation via consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be officially launched by Nansen
  • Token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable
  • Announcements, pre-launch phases, or locked tokens do not qualify
  • Resolution deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in each market title
  • YES if all conditions met by deadline; NO otherwise

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Announcement without trading: If Nansen announces a token but it is not yet actively tradable by the deadline, the market resolves NO
  • Limited or restricted trading: If the token is launched but trading is restricted (e.g., only to accredited investors, locked liquidity, or non-public exchanges), the market resolves NO unless it is actively and publicly transferable
  • Multiple token launches: If Nansen launches multiple tokens, YES if any one meets the criteria of being a governance token that is actively and publicly transferable and tradable
  • Source conflict: If official Nansen sources conflict with credible reporting, official Nansen sources take precedence; if both are unclear, consensus of credible reporting determines resolution
Timing: Resolution occurs at 11:59 PM ET on each market's specified date (March 31, June 30, September 30, December 31, 2026, and December 31, 2027). Earlier markets (shorter timelines) may resolve YES and make later markets automatically YES if the token launches before their deadlines.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the Nansen token launch market across multiple prediction platforms, providing a consensus view of whether a Nansen token will be launched by Jan 1, 2028. Currently, the aggregated volume for this market is $30,846,142, with $31 traded in the last 24 hours. By combining data from Polymarket and Predict, we aim to present a comprehensive picture of market sentiment. Polymarket currently favors Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? at 25.5%, while Predict leans toward Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? at 8.0%.

Unlike traditional spot markets that reflect current prices, this market represents expectations about a future event – the launch of a Nansen token. Prediction market odds, therefore, function as a forecast, aggregating the beliefs of many traders. The current price on this market reflects the collective probability assigned to that launch occurring by the specified date. Significant shifts in these odds can indicate changing perceptions of Nansen's plans or broader market conditions impacting the likelihood of a token launch. Observing these changes can offer insights beyond simple price discovery.

On Polymarket, this market is priced by traders expressing their views on the probability of a Nansen token launch, while Predict operates with a similar mechanism but potentially different user bases and liquidity. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. This can lead to price discrepancies even when considering the same underlying event. Factors such as differing trading fees, platform-specific rules, and the overall risk appetite of each platform's users can all contribute to these variations. A 17.5 percentage point difference between the two platforms isn’t uncommon, especially with events that have uncertain timelines.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Nansen has officially launched a token, as evidenced by publicly available information such as announcements on their official channels, listings on cryptocurrency exchanges, or official documentation. The outcome will be determined by a review of these sources to establish a definitive answer regarding the token launch, and the result will be reported on PredictionHero.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Nansen regarding their plans for a token launch would be the most direct catalyst. Positive or negative news concerning Nansen's financial performance, partnerships, or regulatory compliance could also influence trader sentiment. Broader trends in the cryptocurrency market, particularly the success or failure of similar projects, could indirectly affect the odds. Finally, any leaks or credible rumors about Nansen's internal discussions regarding a token launch could cause substantial movement in this market.