TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:57 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo wins an S-Tier Counter-Strike event between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S-Tier event means a Counter-Strike tournament classified as S-Tier by the Liquipedia Counter-Strike wiki (https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/S-Tier_Tournaments) at the time the tournament concludes. A later change to a tournament's Liquipedia tier classification will not affect this market. Winning means being a member of the winning team's lineup at that event and having played in at least one map for that team during the event. Appearances in a non-playing role, for example as a coach or an unused substitute, will not qualify. The match or standing that decides the event title must conclude within the window above. If it cannot be determined whether FalleN won a qualifying event by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant tournament organizers and HLTV.org, with tier classification per Liquipedia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo wins an S-Tier Counter-Strike event between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S-Tier event means a Counter-Strike tournament classified as S-Tier by the Liquipedia Counter-Strike wiki (https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/S-Tier_Tournaments) at the time the tournament concludes. A later change to a tournament's Liquipedia tier classification will not affect this market. Winning means being a member of the winning team's lineup at that event and having played in at least one map for that team during the event. Appearances in a non-playing role, for example as a coach or an unused substitute, will not qualify. The match or standing that decides the event title must conclude within the window above. If it cannot be determined whether FalleN won a qualifying event by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant tournament organizers and HLTV.org, with tier classification per Liquipedia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Compared to traditional sportsbook odds, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced outlook shaped by trader sentiment and recent in-play performance data. While sportsbooks may set lines based on broader analyst views, the prediction market price incorporates crowd-sourced insights and can shift rapidly with each major gameplay milestone or news update.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders collectively set the odds for this market through buying and selling shares, with the current implied probability reflecting the balance of bets placed. The market price adjusts dynamically based on trading volume and recent shifts in trader confidence about FalleN’s chances of winning an S-Tier event during the period.
This market resolves around Jan 15, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A win will be determined by FalleN securing a victory in any officially recognized S-Tier tournament within the defined timeframe, and the result will be finalized based on widely accepted esports news sources and tournament results.
Key signals that could shift this market include FalleN’s performance in upcoming qualifiers, major tournament announcements, changes to his team roster, and high-profile match results. Any indication of improved form or a strong early performance in S-Tier events may boost trading activity, while injuries or disappointing losses could drive rapid price adjustments among traders.