TOTAL VOLUME:
$94.5b
24H VOL:
$345,188,593
24H TRANSACTIONS:
906,796,923
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,242,208,494
792,047
Markets across
13,564
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
835
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Time left: 20d:17h:42m
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canva's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canva's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Prediction markets and traditional analyst forecasts operate on different timelines and data sources. While equity research teams publish periodic reports on private company valuations based on funding rounds and comparable comps, this market aggregates real-time bets from traders who profit or lose based on the actual outcome. Analyst estimates tend to lag market developments, whereas traders here adjust positions immediately when news breaks. Comparing the odds to published analyst views can reveal whether the market is pricing in more optimism or skepticism than the consensus view on Canva's near-term valuation trajectory.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on order flow and liquidity. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the marginal trader's belief: a higher price means more participants expect the valuation milestone to be reached, while a lower price signals skepticism. Each share costs between 0 and 1 dollar, and payouts are binary—you either receive your full stake back or nothing, depending on whether the event occurs. This mechanism ensures prices remain tightly anchored to real-time expectations.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether Canva's valuation reaches the specified threshold on or before that date. Traders should monitor official company announcements, funding disclosures, and reputable financial news sources for evidence of any new funding round or valuation event. Once the deadline passes, the market will settle based on the best available public record of Canva's valuation at that time.
Major catalysts include new funding announcements, secondary share sales, or IPO filings that would directly establish Canva's valuation. Earnings or user growth metrics, if disclosed, could shift trader confidence in the company's trajectory. Broader market conditions affecting venture-backed tech valuations—such as interest rate changes or shifts in investor appetite for design software—will also influence odds. Competitive developments, executive changes, or strategic partnerships could reshape expectations about Canva's future value. Watch for insider commentary or investor presentations that hint at valuation discussions or exit timelines.
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