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Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings?
Financials
kalshi
polymarket

Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$37,227
Volume 24h:
$5,558
292%
Liquidity:
$71
33%
Open interest:
$15,340
3%
PredictionHero
Above 45.5 million 98%
kalshi
Above 45 million 96%
kalshi
Above 47 million 94%
kalshi
Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2…406080100

Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?

98%chance
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kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 11% 35 days to resolution
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Description

This event group asks whether American Airlines (AAL) will beat quarterly earnings expectations. Polymarket resolves based on non-GAAP EPS exceeding $0.04 for Q2 2026 (earnings expected July 23, 2026), while Kalshi's criteria reference United Airlines passenger counts—creating a fundamental mismatch between the two platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental company and metric mismatch. Polymarket resolves on American Airlines non-GAAP EPS; Kalshi resolves on United Airlines passenger counts. These are incompatible resolution criteria for the same event group label.Hero tip: Do not trade across these platforms assuming they settle the same way. Verify with market creators whether Kalshi's criteria are a labeling error or intentional. If intentional, treat as two separate markets entirely.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if American Airlines reports non-GAAP EPS > $0.04 for Q2 2026 (earnings ~July 23, 2026). Cascades to SeekingAlpha non-GAAP, then GAAP EPS if needed. Resolves NO if no earnings within 45 days or no EPS available. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if American Airlines reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.04 for the relevant quarter.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if United Airlines (different company) reports above 45M–50M+ passengers in Q2 2026. Eleven separate thresholds, all tied to passenger volume, not earnings. Key Quote: 'If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 45000000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

As of market creation, American Airlines is estimated to release earnings on July 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for American Airlines’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.04 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if American Airlines reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.04 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If American Airlines releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Kalshi

If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 45000000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 45500000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 46000000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 46500000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 47000000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 47500000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 48000000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 48500000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The AAL earnings beat market aggregates trader predictions on whether American Airlines will report better-than-expected quarterly results. This dashboard displays real-time odds and volume across prediction venues, letting you monitor consensus conviction as earnings approach. Traders here are essentially betting on whether AAL's actual earnings per share or revenue will exceed Wall Street consensus estimates. The market reflects collective intelligence from participants who analyze airline industry trends, fuel costs, capacity decisions, and macroeconomic headwinds. Total volume of $37,227 shows the scale of interest in this outcome.

Prediction market prices often diverge meaningfully from traditional analyst consensus, since traders face direct financial incentive to price outcomes accurately. While sell-side analysts may anchor on management guidance or historical trends, this market reflects real-money bets on actual reported results. Analyst forecasts tend to cluster around consensus estimates, whereas prediction markets reward contrarian views backed by conviction. Comparing the implied probability here to the distribution of analyst estimates can reveal whether the crowd expects a beat, miss, or in-line result. This market typically updates faster than analyst revisions, especially as earnings date approaches.

This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, once American Airlines publicly reports its quarterly earnings. The outcome is confirmed when verified against credible public sources, such as the company's official earnings announcement or SEC filings. Traders are betting on whether reported earnings will exceed consensus expectations at the time of release. Resolution hinges on the actual reported figure versus the pre-announcement consensus, not on subsequent guidance or management commentary. Once the earnings are official and verifiable, the market settles and positions are finalized.

Airline industry catalysts—fuel price swings, capacity announcements, and load-factor trends—can shift odds significantly. Macroeconomic data on consumer spending and travel demand often triggers repricing, since leisure and business travel directly impact AAL revenue. Competitor earnings reports may reset expectations for the sector. Management commentary, guidance revisions, or operational disruptions (weather, labor, mechanical issues) can alter the beat probability. Analyst estimate revisions and options-market activity sometimes signal informed positioning. Broader market volatility and credit-spread widening can also influence trader risk appetite, moving odds even without airline-specific news.

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