TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.9b

24H VOL:

$213,626,991

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,816,443,416

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,855,805,452

492,440

Markets across

36,631

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,819

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will Abstract launch a token by ___?
polymarket
opinion

Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2025?

Total volume:
$6,551,118
Volume 24h:
$2,051,103
5,860,195%
Liquidity:
$51,354
14%
Open interest:
$80,782N/A

June 30, 2027

 - Polymarket

June 30, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will Abstract launch a token by June 30, 2027?

4%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 4.2¢ buys you 2,381 shares | Odds: 4% Total Payout: $2,381 | Net Profit: $2,281 Multiplier: 23.81x | ROI: 2,281% APY not meaningful 249 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
4%
Yes 4.2¢No 96.4¢
0.6¢
$8,641
$9,947
0%
2%
N/A
8mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 96.3¢
0.3¢
$10,853
$8,838
0%
12%
N/A
5mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2027

Trade
4%
Yes 3.8¢No 96.5¢
0.3¢
$12,806
$19,774
0%
2%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

September 30, 2027

Trade
3%
Yes 3.7¢No 97.3¢
1¢
$9,038
$11,367
0%
0.53%
N/A
11mo 1w 4d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 97.6¢
0.1¢
$10,016
$418,551
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
opinion

December 31, 2026

Trade
2%
Yes 4.1¢No 99.9¢
4¢
N/A
$2,050,592
0%
0.02%
N/A
N/A
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.8%
Yes 3.3¢No 98.8¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max: 4¢
opinion

December 31, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,856,855
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
polymarket

December 31, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$165,135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30, 2026

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,058
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event group tracks whether Abstract, a blockchain/crypto project, will launch an officially tradable token by specified deadlines (2025 and 2026). The core question is whether Abstract achieves token launch with active public transferability and trading capability, not merely an announcement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket markets enforce identical substantive criteria: token must be officially launched, actively transferable, publicly tradable, and operational by the deadline; announcements alone are insufficient.Primary resolution logic: Abstract official sources (primary), consensus of credible reporting (secondary)

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be officially launched by Abstract
  • Token must be actively and publicly transferable
  • Token must be actively and publicly tradable
  • Announcements or pre-launch statements do not qualify as launch
  • Resolution deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the specified date

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Announcement vs. Launch: A public announcement of a token launch does not trigger Yes resolution. The token must be operationally live and tradable on at least one public exchange or DEX.
  • Limited vs. Public Launch: Token must be publicly transferable and tradable, not restricted to whitelisted or private participants.
  • Testnet or Staging: Testnet tokens or staging environment deployments do not qualify. The token must be on a live, public blockchain network.
  • Timing Boundary: Launch must occur on or before 11:59 PM ET on the specified deadline date. Launch at 12:00 AM ET on the following day resolves to No.
Timing: Resolution occurs at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025 (for 2025 market) and December 31, 2026 (for 2026 market). Markets resolve independently based on their respective deadlines.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the Abstract token launch market, aggregating data to provide a consensus view of whether Abstract will launch a token by the designated date. Currently, combined volume across both platforms exceeds $6,551,118, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors Will Abstract launch a token by June 30, 2027? at 3.9%, while Opinion leans toward December 31, 2026 at 1.7%. This allows traders to see a comprehensive picture of market sentiment and potential outcomes.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a forward-looking assessment of probability that differs from current spot price expectations. Spot prices represent the immediate cost of an asset, while this market represents a collective forecast of a future event – in this case, a token launch. The difference between the implied probability from this market and any potential future spot price can reveal valuable insights into market participants’ beliefs about the likelihood of success and the potential impact of the launch. This is a unique advantage of prediction markets.

Prices on Polymarket and Opinion for this market can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same event. Trading volume and liquidity also play a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for trading and market-making on each platform can contribute to price discrepancies. These differences create opportunities for arbitrage, but also highlight the importance of considering multiple sources of information.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Abstract has officially launched a token accessible to the public before the specified date. The outcome will be determined by assessing publicly available information regarding the token launch, including official announcements from the Abstract team and verifiable evidence of its availability for trading or use. The focus is on objective verification, not subjective interpretation.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from the Abstract team regarding their token launch plans, or lack thereof, would be a primary driver. Progress on the Abstract project’s development, including milestones achieved or delays encountered, could also shift sentiment. Broader trends in the crypto market, such as regulatory changes or shifts in investor appetite, might influence trading activity. Positive or negative news coverage related to Abstract or its technology could also move the market, as could any major partnerships or collaborations announced by the team.