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788,916
Markets across
13,456
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Kalshi:
55%
What will Trump say in July? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Aug 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Donald Trump mentions specific words, phrases, or topics in his public communications during July 2025. Traders predict which of 33 different subjects—ranging from geographic locations like Greenland to political figures like Pelosi to concepts like 'Golden Age'—Trump will reference in speeches, social media posts, or statements reported by major news outlets.
Kalshi
Each of the 33 tracked topics resolves to Yes if Donald Trump states that specific word or phrase (or its plural or possessive form) in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social) before August 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Official acts such as Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. Grammatical inflections for plurals and possessives are included (e.g., 'Greenland' includes 'Greenlands' and 'Greenland's'), but other tense inflections, hyphenated compounds, and synonyms are excluded. For phrases with slashes (e.g., 'Crypto / Bitcoin'), either word satisfies the criterion. All instances must occur after market issuance, and if a minimum number of mentions is required, all such instances must meet this timing requirement.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money incentives for accuracy, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts because traders face direct financial consequences for incorrect predictions. While political analysts and media commentators may rely on historical patterns or polling, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who profit only if their forecast proves correct. Comparing the current odds to published expert commentary can reveal where the crowd sees higher or lower probability than the consensus view, offering a complementary perspective on what statements may emerge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for contracts tied to specific outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective willingness of traders to accept risk at that level, with the spread between bid and ask representing the current market uncertainty. As new information arrives or trader conviction shifts, prices adjust in real time, allowing participants to enter or exit positions throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against credible public sources documenting what statements were made. The resolution process verifies whether the predicted statements or remarks occurred during the specified timeframe, drawing on news reports, official transcripts, and other authoritative records. Once the event is verifiable, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on the accuracy of their positions.
Major political announcements, campaign events, media appearances, and breaking news involving Trump can significantly shift odds as traders reassess the likelihood of specific statements. Public statements from allies or opponents, changes in the political calendar, and unexpected developments in ongoing investigations or legal proceedings may all influence market prices. Additionally, shifts in broader political sentiment or polling data could prompt traders to adjust positions, causing volatility in this market as participants react to new information and recalibrate their forecasts.
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