TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Trump post this week? (July 6 - July 12)
kalshi
polymarket

Will Trump post this week (July 6-12)?

Volume:
$2,779,116

Who are you with / Where are you from

 - Kalshi

Who are you with / Where are you from - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Who are you with / Where are you from

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$541,107
N/A
N/A
$256,072
Settled
Yes
kalshi

TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$293,437
N/A
N/A
$169,638
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Transgender

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$239,759
N/A
N/A
$234,266
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$225,618
N/A
N/A
$168,208
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

50,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$186,873
N/A
N/A
$183,653
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ballroom

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$135,856
N/A
N/A
$81,743
Settled
Yes
kalshi

22

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$134,714
N/A
N/A
$129,164
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Barack Hussein Obama

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$93,109
N/A
N/A
$92,596
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sleepy Joe

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35,888
N/A
N/A
$34,448
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cuba / Cuban

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,981
N/A
N/A
$24,271
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hottest

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,125
N/A
N/A
$22,949
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fraud

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,642
N/A
N/A
$20,984
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Landslide

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,763
N/A
N/A
$15,792
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Pulte

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,721
N/A
N/A
$11,766
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Russia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
11¢
N/A
$449
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Pope

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Crime

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Israel

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Scam

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Wall Street

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Football

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

China

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Iran

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gold / Golden

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
13¢
N/A
$44
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 48

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will post the term "Ronaldo" on Truth Social during the week of July 6–12, 2026. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus stands at 10.0% for this outcome, with "Mutilization" also at 10.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by monitoring @realDonaldTrump's verified Truth Social account for exact matches of the specified term, including plural and possessive forms and variations in capitalization, posted between July 6, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET and July 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Watch the final hours before the July 12 betting window closes to assess whether Trump has posted either term during this seven-day period.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct temporal windows (June 29 - July 6 vs July 6 - July 12) create separate, non-overlapping prediction spaces. Kalshi and Polymarket also differ in keyword scope (31 vs 18 terms), matching rules (Kalshi includes reposts; Polymarket excludes them), and text-in-image criteria.Hero tip: Do not treat Kalshi and Polymarket as redundant markets. Kalshi predicts Trump's behavior in the week BEFORE the stated event week, while Polymarket predicts the actual event week. Polymarket's exclusion of reposts/reTruths and stricter misspelling rules make YES resolution less likely than on Kalshi. Choose your platform based on which time window you believe will contain the relevant posts.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 31-keyword list (Autism, Cuba, Fraud, Crypto, Windmill, Melania, Sleepy Joe, Rigged Election, Uranium, etc.). Resolution window: June 29, 2026, 8:00 AM ET to July 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Includes quote/reply posts and reposts. Plural/possessive forms count. Text in images counts if clearly spelled out. Broad matching philosophy.
  • Polymarket: 18-term list (Football, Soccer, World Cup, Wall Street, Crime, Scam, Russia, Israel, Iran, China, Crypto, Bitcoin, Uranium, Gold, Golden, Pope, Ronaldo, Goal). Resolution window: July 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET to July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Explicitly excludes reposts/reTruths. Quote/reply posts count. Strict misspelling exclusion. Text in images counts only if non-animated and clearly spelled out. Stricter matching philosophy.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Kalshi

Donald Trump's statements are monitored during the specified week (June 29, 2026 at 8:00am ET through July 6, 2026 at 12:00am ET) across public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, and written posts on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official acts such as Executive Orders or signed bills do not qualify. For each tracked term or phrase, grammatical inflections including plurals and possessives are recognized (e.g., "immigrant" covers "immigrants" and "immigrant's"), but other tense variations, hyphenated compounds, and synonyms are excluded. For phrases with slashes (e.g., "Doge/Dogecoin"), either word satisfies the criterion. All instances must occur after the market's issuance date. The market resolves to Yes if any single tracked term or phrase is stated by Trump during this window.

Frequently asked questions

The Trump social media activity market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi about specific posts and statements expected during a given week. This market focuses on whether particular phrases, topics, or claims will appear in Trump's social media output within the tracking period. Traders on both platforms price their confidence in these outcomes independently, creating a real-time consensus view of what content is most likely to surface. The dashboard displays top predicted outcomes alongside their respective odds, giving participants and observers a snapshot of collective market expectations around his messaging priorities and communication patterns.

Prediction markets like this one operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than expert analysis alone. Traders with real financial stakes adjust odds continuously based on new information, breaking news, and shifting probabilities—often faster than traditional analyst reports. While political analysts may rely on historical patterns and qualitative judgment, this market reflects live, incentivized bets from thousands of participants. The result is typically more dynamic and responsive to emerging signals. However, both approaches have merit: markets excel at aggregating dispersed information, while expert forecasters bring domain knowledge and context that pure price signals may not capture.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct regulatory frameworks, user bases, and liquidity conditions. Kalshi and Polymarket may have different interpretations of ambiguous outcome language, leading traders to price identical events differently. Liquidity depth varies by platform, so large trades can move odds more sharply on one venue than another. Additionally, user demographics and risk appetites differ—some traders favor one platform over the other based on interface, fees, or trust. These structural differences mean identical outcomes can trade at meaningfully different odds across venues, creating arbitrage opportunities for sharp traders.

Major political developments, legal proceedings, or breaking news involving Trump can shift market odds dramatically as traders reassess the likelihood of certain topics dominating his messaging. Unexpected statements from allies or opponents may prompt him to respond publicly, influencing which outcomes gain traction. Market-moving events include policy announcements, campaign developments, or media controversies that typically trigger rapid social media responses. Early posts during the week also provide real-time signals—if a predicted phrase appears early, odds on similar outcomes may rise. Traders should watch news cycles, court filings, and his existing social media feed for clues about what he's likely to address next.