TOTAL VOLUME:
$93.5b
24H VOL:
$255,219,221
24H TRANSACTIONS:
895,665,474
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,112,518,050
786,928
Markets across
13,575
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
891
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
46%
VS.
Kalshi:
54%
Description
This event group aggregates prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket asking whether Donald Trump will post specific terms or phrases on Truth Social during the week of July 13-19, 2026. Kalshi offers 30 binary markets on thematic terms (political figures, policy phrases, conspiracy theories), while Polymarket offers 18 binary markets on specific words or phrases (mostly geopolitical, sports, and financial terms). Both platforms resolve based on Trump's verified @realDonaldTrump Truth Social account activity.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket operate on fundamentally incompatible time windows: Kalshi resolves on historical activity BEFORE July 13, 2026, while Polymarket resolves on prospective activity DURING July 13-19, 2026. This makes cross-platform arbitrage impossible and creates settlement risk if either platform's specification is misinterpreted.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with different underlying events. Polymarket aligns with the event group title and is the prospective bet. Kalshi appears to be a retroactive/historical bet and may contain a specification error. Request clarification from the platform before trading significant size. If forced to choose, Polymarket is the canonical market for the stated event week.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: 30 binary markets resolving YES if Trump states thematic/interpretive terms BEFORE July 13, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET. Terms include political figures (Obama, Netanyahu, Melania), policy slogans (Drill Baby Drill), and conspiracy references (TDS, Epstein). Resolution requires subjective judgment on what constitutes 'stating' a term. Key quote: 'If [term] is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 13, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.' This retroactive window contradicts the event group framing.
- Polymarket: 18 binary markets resolving YES if Trump posts specific concrete terms on Truth Social DURING July 13-19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET to 11:59 PM ET. Terms are geopolitical (Russia, China, Iran, Israel), sports (Football, Soccer, World Cup, Ronaldo, Goal), financial (Wall Street, Gold, Crypto, Bitcoin, Uranium), and policy (Crime, Scam, Pope). Resolution requires strict grammatical matching with detailed rules on plurals, possessives, capitalization, compound words, and exclusion of misspellings/extraneous symbols. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.' This prospective window aligns with the stated event week.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Kalshi
This event resolves Yes if Donald Trump states any of the tracked phrases before July 13, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Valid sources include public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, and written statements on personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official acts such as Executive Orders or signed bills do not count. The exact phrase or word must be used, including plural or possessive forms, though other grammatical or tense inflections are not required. For phrases with slashes (e.g., "Crypto / Bitcoin"), either word satisfies the criterion. All instances must occur after market issuance. Tracked phrases include references to political figures (Gianni/Infantino, Cuba/Cuban, Barack Hussein Obama, Bibi/Netanyahu, Melania, Newscum, Karoline/Leavitt, Sleepy Joe, Epstein), policy positions (Drill Baby Drill, TDS/Trump Derangement Syndrome, Crypto/Bitcoin, Marijuana/Weed/Cannabis, Rigged Election/Stolen Election, Transgender), descriptive terms (Golden Dome, Fraud, Windmill, Autistic, Hottest, Landslide, Red Card, American Flag Blue, Ballroom), and miscellaneous items (Who are you with/Where are you from, Prediction Market/Predictive Market, Autopen/Auto Pen, 50,000, UFO/UAP, Stupid Question, Uranium).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those on Polymarket and Kalshi differ fundamentally from traditional analyst forecasts. Rather than relying on expert opinion, these venues aggregate the financial commitments of many traders, each betting real money on outcomes. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that updates continuously as new information emerges. Analysts may issue point estimates or qualitative assessments, but prediction markets embed incentives for accuracy—traders who guess wrong lose capital. For Trump's social media activity, this market-based approach often reflects faster reaction to breaking news and shifts in public discourse than periodic analyst reports.
Polymarket currently favors Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? at 80.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Trump say "Newscum" before Jul 13, 2026? at 99.0%. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences arise from distinct trader bases, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools on each platform. Polymarket and Kalshi may attract different demographics of traders with varying information access or risk appetites. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes emerge when the same outcome is priced differently across venues, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays can limit traders' ability to exploit these gaps. Over time, as more traders notice discrepancies, prices tend to converge.
This market resolves around Jul 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether Trump's actual social media posts during the tracked week match the specific mention or phrase in question. Traders and platform moderators will review his public statements across relevant platforms to determine if the predicted content appeared. The binary nature of this market—either the post occurs or it does not—makes verification straightforward once the week concludes and all posts are documented.
Breaking news, political developments, and Trump's recent communication patterns all influence trader sentiment. If major policy announcements or controversies emerge, traders may reassess the likelihood of specific mentions. Shifts in media coverage or trending topics can signal which phrases Trump is more likely to use. His historical posting frequency and typical vocabulary also serve as anchors for prediction adjustments. Additionally, statements from Trump's advisors or changes in his social media strategy could prompt rapid repricing. Real-time monitoring of his existing posts and public events will help traders refine their odds as the resolution date approaches.
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