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What will Trump post this week? (July 13 - July 19)
kalshi
polymarket

Will Trump post this week (July 13-19)?

Volume:
$2,309,082

Newscum

 - Kalshi

Newscum - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 10:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Newscum

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$889,655
N/A
N/A
$872,669
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Who are you with / Where are you from

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$105,405
N/A
N/A
$15,970
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Rigged Election / Stolen Election

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$89,406
N/A
N/A
$88,807
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sleepy Joe

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,632
N/A
N/A
$13,077
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Red Card

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,736
N/A
N/A
$12,596
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Bibi / Netanyahu

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,268
N/A
N/A
$7,754
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Crypto / Bitcoin

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,782
N/A
N/A
$6,326
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ballroom

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,382
N/A
N/A
$4,929
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Landslide

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,299
N/A
N/A
$5,067
Settled
Yes
kalshi

50,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,149
N/A
N/A
$4,328
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hottest

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,865
N/A
N/A
$5,824
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Gianni / Infantino

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,451
N/A
N/A
$3,451
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Russia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,839
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Crime

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,757
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gold / Golden

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.4¢
N/A
$1,060
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Iran

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$745
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

World Cup

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$627
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

China

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Israel

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
12.9¢
N/A
$145
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Goal

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fraud

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$282,420
N/A
N/A
$177,541
Settled
No
kalshi

Cuba / Cuban

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$127,718
N/A
N/A
$72,998
Settled
No
kalshi

Stupid Question

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$94,894
N/A
N/A
$77,535
Settled
No
kalshi

Transgender

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$91,635
N/A
N/A
$58,034
Settled
No
kalshi

Barack Hussein Obama

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$81,647
N/A
N/A
$28,191
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 47

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will post specific terms on Truth Social during the week of July 13–19, 2026. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the leading outcome—Trump posting "Football"—stands at 19.9%, while "Soccer" follows at 19.0%. Resolution will be determined by monitoring @realDonaldTrump's verified Truth Social account for exact matches of listed terms, with plural, possessive, and capitalization variants counting toward resolution. Watch the betting period close on July 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET to see which terms, if any, appear in Trump's posts during this seven-day window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket operate on fundamentally incompatible time windows: Kalshi resolves on historical activity BEFORE July 13, 2026, while Polymarket resolves on prospective activity DURING July 13-19, 2026. This makes cross-platform arbitrage impossible and creates settlement risk if either platform's specification is misinterpreted.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with different underlying events. Polymarket aligns with the event group title and is the prospective bet. Kalshi appears to be a retroactive/historical bet and may contain a specification error. Request clarification from the platform before trading significant size. If forced to choose, Polymarket is the canonical market for the stated event week.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 30 binary markets resolving YES if Trump states thematic/interpretive terms BEFORE July 13, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET. Terms include political figures (Obama, Netanyahu, Melania), policy slogans (Drill Baby Drill), and conspiracy references (TDS, Epstein). Resolution requires subjective judgment on what constitutes 'stating' a term. Key quote: 'If [term] is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 13, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.' This retroactive window contradicts the event group framing.
  • Polymarket: 18 binary markets resolving YES if Trump posts specific concrete terms on Truth Social DURING July 13-19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET to 11:59 PM ET. Terms are geopolitical (Russia, China, Iran, Israel), sports (Football, Soccer, World Cup, Ronaldo, Goal), financial (Wall Street, Gold, Crypto, Bitcoin, Uranium), and policy (Crime, Scam, Pope). Resolution requires strict grammatical matching with detailed rules on plurals, possessives, capitalization, compound words, and exclusion of misspellings/extraneous symbols. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.' This prospective window aligns with the stated event week.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Kalshi

This event resolves Yes if Donald Trump states any of the tracked phrases before July 13, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Valid sources include public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, and written statements on personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official acts such as Executive Orders or signed bills do not count. The exact phrase or word must be used, including plural or possessive forms, though other grammatical or tense inflections are not required. For phrases with slashes (e.g., "Crypto / Bitcoin"), either word satisfies the criterion. All instances must occur after market issuance. Tracked phrases include references to political figures (Gianni/Infantino, Cuba/Cuban, Barack Hussein Obama, Bibi/Netanyahu, Melania, Newscum, Karoline/Leavitt, Sleepy Joe, Epstein), policy positions (Drill Baby Drill, TDS/Trump Derangement Syndrome, Crypto/Bitcoin, Marijuana/Weed/Cannabis, Rigged Election/Stolen Election, Transgender), descriptive terms (Golden Dome, Fraud, Windmill, Autistic, Hottest, Landslide, Red Card, American Flag Blue, Ballroom), and miscellaneous items (Who are you with/Where are you from, Prediction Market/Predictive Market, Autopen/Auto Pen, 50,000, UFO/UAP, Stupid Question, Uranium).

Frequently asked questions

The Trump social media activity market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi about what former President Trump will post during a specific week. This market focuses on mentions—tracking whether particular terms, phrases, or topics appear in his social media activity. Traders on both venues assess the likelihood of various posts, from specific catchphrases to policy-related content. The combined volume across these platforms reflects real-time consensus on which posts are most probable. By monitoring these cross-platform odds, you gain insight into what the prediction market community expects Trump to communicate publicly during the tracked period.

Prediction markets like those on Polymarket and Kalshi differ fundamentally from traditional analyst forecasts. Rather than relying on expert opinion, these venues aggregate the financial commitments of many traders, each betting real money on outcomes. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that updates continuously as new information emerges. Analysts may issue point estimates or qualitative assessments, but prediction markets embed incentives for accuracy—traders who guess wrong lose capital. For Trump's social media activity, this market-based approach often reflects faster reaction to breaking news and shifts in public discourse than periodic analyst reports.

Breaking news, political developments, and Trump's recent communication patterns all influence trader sentiment. If major policy announcements or controversies emerge, traders may reassess the likelihood of specific mentions. Shifts in media coverage or trending topics can signal which phrases Trump is more likely to use. His historical posting frequency and typical vocabulary also serve as anchors for prediction adjustments. Additionally, statements from Trump's advisors or changes in his social media strategy could prompt rapid repricing. Real-time monitoring of his existing posts and public events will help traders refine their odds as the resolution date approaches.