TOTAL VOLUME:
$93.7b
24H VOL:
$252,660,825
24H TRANSACTIONS:
895,773,260
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,126,876,720
788,586
Markets across
13,569
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
884
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
46%
VS.
Kalshi:
54%
What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will Kevin Warsh say Central Bank at his Jul 2026 press conference?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Description
This event tracks whether the Federal Reserve Chair mentions specific words or phrases during the July 2026 post-FOMC meeting press conference, including introductory remarks and Q&A session. Resolution is based on video evidence, with official transcripts used as backup if consensus cannot be reached from video alone.
Kalshi
The Federal Reserve Chair's July 2026 post-FOMC meeting will be monitored for mentions of designated terms and phrases during both introductory remarks and the question-and-answer session. Resolution occurs if any of the specified words or phrases are spoken, including exact matches or plural/possessive forms, though grammatical and tense variations are not counted as matches. Video of the complete press conference serves as the primary resolution source; if Kalshi employees cannot reach consensus using video evidence, official internal and external transcripts will be consulted. The resolution framework covers a diverse range of economic, political, and financial terminology spanning monetary policy tools (QT, QE, balance sheet), economic conditions (recession, stagflation, slowdown, goods inflation), labor market indicators (layoffs, ADP), inflation and pricing dynamics (consumer confidence, uncertainty, volatility), geopolitical factors (Trump, Iran, President), commodity prices (oil, gas, gold), financial assets (Bitcoin, crypto), fiscal matters (tax, national debt, shutdown), and various other economic concepts (productivity, projections, credit, central bank operations, dollar strength, and anchored expectations).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from many participants rather than relying on a single expert opinion. Traders in this market incorporate their own research, recent news, and market signals to price outcomes, sometimes moving faster than formal analyst updates. While polls and expert commentary provide valuable context, the continuous repricing on prediction markets reflects dynamic, decentralized consensus. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees opportunities that analysts may have overlooked or underweighted.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares corresponding to each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the marginal trade—the last matched buy or sell order—and moves as new orders arrive and existing positions shift. Traders can enter or exit at any time before the market closes, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating the current uncertainty around what Kevin Warsh will say during his press conference.
This market resolves around Aug 13, 2026, once Kevin Warsh's press conference has concluded and his statements are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by matching his actual remarks against the specific claims or topics embedded in each trading option. Resolution hinges on clear, documented evidence of what was said—typically via official transcripts, video recordings, or reputable news coverage. Once the event occurs and statements are confirmed, the market settles accordingly.
Market prices may shift in response to scheduled announcements, economic data releases, or policy statements that hint at Kevin Warsh's likely talking points. Media commentary, interviews, or op-eds he publishes before the press conference could signal his priorities and move trader expectations. Changes in broader financial or political conditions—interest rates, inflation, regulatory developments—may also influence what traders expect him to emphasize. As the event date approaches, any official agenda or preview materials released could trigger repricing across all outcomes in this market.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.