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What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference?
kalshi

What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference?

Volume:
$1,069,344

Good Day

 - Kalshi

Good Day - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 29, 2026

Closed: Jul 29, 3:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Good Day

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$49,483
N/A
N/A
$35,422
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Family Fight / Family Feud

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$47,373
N/A
N/A
$29,997
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dollar

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,903
N/A
N/A
$17,737
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Balance Sheet

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,543
N/A
N/A
$20,805
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Restrictive

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,979
N/A
N/A
$15,751
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Productivity

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$23,320
N/A
N/A
$16,787
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Central Bank

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,847
N/A
N/A
$16,863
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Credit

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,305
N/A
N/A
$13,068
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Pandemic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,279
N/A
N/A
$16,091
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Shock

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,100
N/A
N/A
$12,575
Settled
Yes
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,393
N/A
N/A
$13,351
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Uncertainty

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,927
N/A
N/A
$14,409
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Good Afternoon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$70,634
N/A
N/A
$39,797
Settled
No
kalshi

Trump

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$59,770
N/A
N/A
$50,579
Settled
No
kalshi

President

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,537
N/A
N/A
$41,094
Settled
No
kalshi

Dissent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,084
N/A
N/A
$30,060
Settled
No
kalshi

Projection

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,161
N/A
N/A
$27,653
Settled
No
kalshi

Iran

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,835
N/A
N/A
$23,359
Settled
No
kalshi

Anchor / Anchored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,318
N/A
N/A
$24,724
Settled
No
kalshi

Crypto / Cryptocurrency

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,279
N/A
N/A
$24,134
Settled
No
kalshi

Oil

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,654
N/A
N/A
$17,884
Settled
No
kalshi

Consumer Confidence

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,126
N/A
N/A
$21,781
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,307
N/A
N/A
$19,562
Settled
No
kalshi

Recession

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,088
N/A
N/A
$15,580
Settled
No
kalshi

Egg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,587
N/A
N/A
$17,347
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 44

Intro

This market tracks whether Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will say the phrase Good Day during his July 2026 press conference on Kalshi, with the current probability set at 99.0%. The resolution source is video evidence from the July 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q&A, using official transcripts as backup if needed. Watch for the conclusion of the July 2026 post-FOMC meeting on 2026-08-13, which will determine this market's outcome.

Kalshi

The Federal Reserve Chair's July 2026 post-FOMC meeting will be monitored for mentions of designated terms and phrases during both introductory remarks and the question-and-answer session. Resolution occurs if any of the specified words or phrases are spoken, including exact matches or plural/possessive forms, though grammatical and tense variations are not counted as matches. Video of the complete press conference serves as the primary resolution source; if Kalshi employees cannot reach consensus using video evidence, official internal and external transcripts will be consulted. The resolution framework covers a diverse range of economic, political, and financial terminology spanning monetary policy tools (QT, QE, balance sheet), economic conditions (recession, stagflation, slowdown, goods inflation), labor market indicators (layoffs, ADP), inflation and pricing dynamics (consumer confidence, uncertainty, volatility), geopolitical factors (Trump, Iran, President), commodity prices (oil, gas, gold), financial assets (Bitcoin, crypto), fiscal matters (tax, national debt, shutdown), and various other economic concepts (productivity, projections, credit, central bank operations, dollar strength, and anchored expectations).

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Kevin Warsh July press conference market on Kalshi displays real-time odds and historical price movements tied to specific statements or topics he may address during his scheduled appearance. Traders use this interface to buy and sell shares reflecting their conviction about what he will say. The display includes 24-hour volume data, allowing participants to gauge current trading activity and liquidity. This live tracking helps traders monitor shifting sentiment as new information or commentary emerges ahead of the event.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from many participants rather than relying on a single expert opinion. Traders in this market incorporate their own research, recent news, and market signals to price outcomes, sometimes moving faster than formal analyst updates. While polls and expert commentary provide valuable context, the continuous repricing on prediction markets reflects dynamic, decentralized consensus. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees opportunities that analysts may have overlooked or underweighted.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares corresponding to each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the marginal trade—the last matched buy or sell order—and moves as new orders arrive and existing positions shift. Traders can enter or exit at any time before the market closes, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating the current uncertainty around what Kevin Warsh will say during his press conference.

This market resolves around Aug 13, 2026, once Kevin Warsh's press conference has concluded and his statements are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by matching his actual remarks against the specific claims or topics embedded in each trading option. Resolution hinges on clear, documented evidence of what was said—typically via official transcripts, video recordings, or reputable news coverage. Once the event occurs and statements are confirmed, the market settles accordingly.

Market prices may shift in response to scheduled announcements, economic data releases, or policy statements that hint at Kevin Warsh's likely talking points. Media commentary, interviews, or op-eds he publishes before the press conference could signal his priorities and move trader expectations. Changes in broader financial or political conditions—interest rates, inflation, regulatory developments—may also influence what traders expect him to emphasize. As the event date approaches, any official agenda or preview materials released could trigger repricing across all outcomes in this market.