TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$236,615,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,344,513,070
577,941
Markets across
14,530
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,090
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will be the top US Netflix show this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$104,929
Harry Styles. One Night in Manchester. 2%
Bridgerton: Season 4 98%
Bridgerton: Season 4 100%
Closed: Mar 9, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which show will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list as published on March 10, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on the official Netflix Top 10 update reflecting viewership data from the prior week (Monday–Sunday), with resolution occurring on the published date or by a specified deadline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi define different candidate universes for the #1 Netflix show. Polymarket includes a catch-all outcome for any show not explicitly listed; Kalshi specifies exactly 12 named shows with no documented fallback mechanism.Hero Tip:
If the #1 show on March 10, 2026 is not among Kalshi's 12 named options, Kalshi's resolution path is undefined. Polymarket's "another show" option provides explicit coverage. Traders should assume Kalshi resolves to "No" for all 12 markets if an unlisted show ranks #1, but confirm with the platform before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
19 outcomes total: 18 named shows (Blue Therapy, The Dinosaurs, Gabby's Dollhouse, The Night Agent: Season 3, Bridgerton: Season 4, Vladimir, and 12 generic placeholders A–K) plus outcome 19 'Will another show be the top US Netflix show this week?' Resolves to the #1 show on top10.netflix.com published March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, or 'Other' if no update by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Kalshi:
12 named shows only: The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4, Love Is Blind: Ohio, Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model, Bridgerton: Season 4, Famous Last Words: Eric Dane, Raw: 2026, Taylor Tomlinson: Prodigal Daughter, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, The Night Agent: Season 3, Harry Styles. One Night in Manchester., The Hunting Party: Season 1, Vladimir. Each resolves to 'Yes' if that show is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published March 10, 2026. No explicit fallback or 'No' outcome documented.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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