TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi provides a closed list of 11 specific shows that resolve YES, while Polymarket includes those same shows plus additional unnamed shows (Show A through Show K) and an 'other' catch-all category, creating different outcome spaces and resolution certainty across platforms.Hero Tip:
On Kalshi, you have clarity: exactly one of the 11 named shows will resolve YES. On Polymarket, the unnamed 'Show' markets and the 'other' category introduce ambiguity—if the #2 show is not explicitly named in Polymarket's list, it may resolve to 'other' or remain unresolved. Avoid betting on Polymarket's unnamed shows unless you can identify what they represent.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Provides a closed, exhaustive list of 11 specific shows (Raw: 2026, Trust Me: The False Prophet, Big Mistakes: Season 1, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, The Predator of Seville, Danny Go!: Season 1, Love on the Spectrum: Season 4, XO, Kitty: Season 3, Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1, Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 1, Trevor Noah: Joy in the Trenches). Each market resolves YES if that show is ranked #2 on Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published April 21, 2026. Exactly one will resolve YES.
- Polymarket: Includes 11 named shows (overlapping with Kalshi: Big Mistakes: Season 1, Trevor Noah: Joy in the Trenches, Trust Me: The False Prophet, XO, Kitty: Season 3) plus 10 unnamed placeholder markets (Show A through Show K, excluding Show L) and additional named shows not on Kalshi (Ronaldinho: The One and Only, Someone Has to Know, Crooks: Season 2, America: Our Defining Hours: Season 1, Sitting Bull, BEEF: Season 2), plus a catch-all 'another show' market. Resolution based on Netflix Top 10 update by April 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with fallback to 'Other' if update does not occur.
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