This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart for the week ending March 3, 2026. Both platforms reference the same official Netflix ranking published on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, based on viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday).
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the identical official Netflix Top 10 US Movie ranking published on March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET as the sole resolution source, with no material divergence in logic or timing.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix Top 10 Movies chart (top10.netflix.com), published Tuesday, March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting US viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday)
Core resolution logic:
Resolution is determined by which movie Netflix officially ranks as #2 on the US Top 10 Movies chart
The ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix
Kalshi resolves Yes if any of 10 named movies (The Orphans, The Addams Family 2, The Addams Family, Fall, Joe's College Road Trip, The Expendables 4, How to Train Your Dragon, A Father's Miracle, KPop Demon Hunters, Homefront) is ranked #2
Polymarket covers the same 10 named movies plus a catch-all option for any other movie
Only one movie can be ranked #2; exactly one outcome resolves to Yes
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Netflix update delay or failure: If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other. Kalshi does not explicitly specify a fallback; in this scenario, Kalshi markets would likely remain unresolved pending official Netflix publication or platform discretion.
Tie or ranking ambiguity: Netflix's official ranking is deterministic and published as a single ordered list; ties are not possible in the official chart. Resolution follows Netflix's published order exactly.
Movie title variations or spelling: Resolution matches the exact movie title as it appears on the Netflix Top 10 chart. Minor variations (e.g., 'Joe's College Road Trip' vs 'Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip') should be treated as the same movie if Netflix lists them under one canonical title.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes the Top 10 chart. If the update is delayed, the deadline for resolution is March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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