TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
Volume:
$123,463,672
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Bitcoin will reach or dip to specific price levels during February 2026, as measured on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles. Markets span multiple price thresholds ($35,000 to $150,000) with two distinct time windows: full month (Feb 1–28) and partial month (Feb 6 11 AM–28). Both Polymarket and Kalshi offer overlapping price-touch markets with unified resolution logic.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve on a price-touch basis: YES if the threshold is ever reached or breached during the specified window, NO otherwise. No sustained duration, closing price, or volume requirement applies.
Primary resolution logic:
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data (High for upside targets, Low for downside targets); Kalshi references BTC spot price post-issuance through Feb 28, 2026 11:59 PM ET.Core resolution logic:
- Upside markets (e.g., 'Will Bitcoin reach $125,000'): YES if any 1-minute candle High >= target price during window
- Downside markets (e.g., 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000'): YES if any 1-minute candle Low <= target price during window
- Full-month window: Feb 1 00:00 AM ET through Feb 28 11:59 PM ET
- Partial-month window (Polymarket only): Feb 6 11:00 AM ET through Feb 28 11:59 PM ET
- Single price touch triggers immediate YES resolution; no closing price or duration requirement
- Resolution source is exclusive to Binance BTC/USDT; other exchanges or trading pairs are not considered
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact threshold touch: Markets resolve YES if price equals the threshold exactly (>= or <= logic, not strict inequality)
- Intraday spike or dip: A single 1-minute candle spike or dip to the threshold is sufficient; price need not close at or near the level
- Window boundary timing: Polymarket full-month window starts at 00:00 AM ET Feb 1 and ends at 11:59 PM ET Feb 28; partial-month window starts Feb 6 11:00 AM ET. Kalshi uses the same end date (Feb 28 11:59 PM ET) but does not specify a start time, implying market issuance date.
- Data source exclusivity: Only Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles are valid; prices from other exchanges, derivatives, or trading pairs do not resolve these markets
- No gap or circuit-breaker exception: If Binance experiences downtime or data gaps, resolution uses available candle data; no alternative source or force majeure clause is specified
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon price touch during the specified window. Full-month markets resolve anytime Feb 1–28, 2026 ET. Partial-month markets resolve anytime Feb 6 11 AM–28, 2026 ET. Any market that does not touch its threshold by 11:59 PM ET Feb 28, 2026 resolves NO.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.