TOTAL VOLUME:
$93.6b
24H VOL:
$224,882,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
895,665,474
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,095,373,534
787,869
Markets across
13,591
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
889
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
What companies will Trump say in July? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Aug 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Donald Trump mentions specific companies or their stock ticker symbols in his public communications during July 2025. Traders predict which of 26 different companies—including major tech firms like Apple and Tesla, media outlets like CNN and Fox News, and industrial companies like Boeing—Trump will reference in speeches, social media posts, or statements reported by major news outlets.
Kalshi
Each of the 26 tracked companies resolves to Yes if Donald Trump states that company name or stock ticker (or its plural or possessive form) in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social) before August 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Official acts such as Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. Grammatical inflections for plurals and possessives are included (e.g., 'Tesla' includes 'Teslas' and 'Tesla's'), but other tense inflections, hyphenated compounds, and synonyms are excluded. For company names with slashes or multiple ticker symbols (e.g., 'Google / GOOG / GOOGL'), any of the listed variants satisfies the criterion. All instances must occur after market issuance, and if a minimum number of mentions is required, all such instances must meet this timing requirement.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on this venue often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-time trader conviction rather than institutional research schedules. While analysts may publish periodic reports on Trump's corporate focus, this market updates continuously as new statements or news emerge. Traders betting on specific company mentions incorporate breaking developments, social media signals, and recent policy announcements faster than formal forecasts typically update. This dynamic pricing can reveal which companies the crowd expects Trump to highlight, sometimes ahead of consensus analyst views, offering a complementary perspective on corporate visibility in political discourse.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book matching, where traders buy and sell shares representing each potential company mention outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices reflect the collective probability assigned by active traders, with each share worth $0.00 to $1.00 based on perceived likelihood. As new information surfaces—such as Trump's public statements, media coverage, or policy announcements—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The tighter the bid-ask spread, the more confident the market consensus; wider spreads signal uncertainty about which companies will be mentioned.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, after the conclusion of July. The outcome is determined by verifying which companies Trump publicly mentioned or named during the month, confirmed through credible public reporting including news archives, official transcripts, and recorded statements. Once the event period closes, the platform reviews documented evidence to settle each company outcome. Traders holding shares in companies Trump did mention receive payouts, while those betting on companies he did not mention receive nothing, creating a straightforward binary resolution tied to verifiable public record.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Major policy announcements or legislative debates involving specific industries may prompt Trump to reference particular companies publicly. Earnings reports, corporate scandals, or high-profile business news could increase the likelihood he comments on certain firms. Media coverage and social media trends also influence trader expectations about which companies will capture his attention. Additionally, campaign events, rallies, or press conferences scheduled for July represent key moments when mentions are most likely, causing traders to adjust positions ahead of those dates. Real-time tracking of his public calendar and recent statements helps traders anticipate which companies may enter his discourse.
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