TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 11:40 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the potential margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively one team might win over the other. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that determines the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the Weber St. vs Cal Poly college football game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026. If Cal Poly wins by exceeding the specified point margin, the corresponding 'Yes' outcome settles; otherwise, it settles 'No'. Should Weber St. win, markets favoring Cal Poly automatically resolve 'No'. Postponements are handled if the game commences within 48 hours of the original schedule, with resolution based on the final result. If the game does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, whereas this market is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Weber St. vs Cal Poly game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The market depth, visible on the dashboard, shows the volume of contracts available at various price points, providing insight into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Weber St. vs Cal Poly game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body for college football. The final score difference will be compared to the contract spreads offered in this market to determine winning and losing contracts. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions and the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Weber St. or Cal Poly teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Unexpected news about coaching decisions or team morale could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in sentiment and cause the price to move.