TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 9:41 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Watford and Charlton, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Watford or Charlton wins the match originally scheduled for October 17, 2026, in the EFL Championship. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Watford winning by more than 2.5 goals, Watford winning by more than 1.5 goals, Charlton winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Charlton winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The resolution occurs after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The event operates independently of any official league affiliations, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs. If there's a significant discrepancy between the two, it may suggest that the crowd believes there's value in one outcome that sportsbooks haven’t fully priced in, or vice versa. It’s important to consider both sources of information when making informed decisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread in the Watford vs Charlton match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price movements. The current price represents the market’s estimate of the probability of a particular spread occurring, and changes as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Watford vs Charlton match, as determined by official match statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the final spread will receive a payout based on the contract’s value at resolution. The resolution process is designed to be objective and transparent, ensuring a fair outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 17, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or strategic changes could also lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a shift in sentiment and cause the market to react accordingly. Monitoring these signals can help traders identify potential opportunities.