TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 9:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific teams will exceed various scoring thresholds in an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a different point total benchmark that must be surpassed by either team to settle the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the Washington vs USC college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. For any market, if the specified team scores strictly more than the stated threshold (e.g., 'over 13.5 points'), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific scoring thresholds set in individual markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could suggest that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a team will score over or under a specific point total. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time view of expectations. The current top market on Kalshi is for USC over 16.5 points scored.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final team totals are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official statistics reported by the game’s governing body, determining whether each team exceeded or fell short of the point totals established within the market. The platform will then determine the winning contracts based on these verified results, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to contract holders.
Several factors could influence the prices in this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries on either Washington or USC would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team’s offensive style, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale might cause traders to reassess their probabilities, leading to price movements in this market. Public sentiment, as reflected in expert analysis and media coverage, could also play a role.