TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 10:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between two college football teams during a specific quarter of their game. It focuses solely on the points scored in the third quarter, ignoring the rest of the match outcome.
The event resolves based on the point differential between Washington and USC exclusively during the third quarter of their game scheduled for October 3, 2026. Markets cover various point spreads, from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger gaps such as over 10.5 points, for both teams winning. Only points scored in the third quarter count toward resolution. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains active and resolves according to the official result. If the game does not start within this window, the market settles at a fair price, ensuring all outcomes reflect only third-quarter performance under defined conditions.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their view. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Examining these differences can be insightful, as the market may incorporate information that sportsbooks haven’t fully priced in, or vice versa. This can provide a broader perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the third quarter. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process is driven by supply and demand, with traders attempting to profit from perceived mispricings. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the Washington vs USC game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread for the third quarter of the Washington vs USC football game will be used to determine winning contracts. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be the basis for settlement. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect spread will not. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. News regarding key player injuries for either Washington or USC would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they affect the playing conditions, could also move the market. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale might also play a role. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, could influence trading activity and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.