TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 9:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This event involves multiple individual player performance markets for a specific football game, focusing on whether certain players score a specified number of touchdowns. Each market is structured around a particular player or team defense/special teams unit and has unique thresholds for resolution.
All markets resolve based on whether specified players or team defense/special teams units record a defined minimum number of touchdowns during the full game, including overtime. Each contract includes a 'protected' designation, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the player meets the touchdown threshold, in which case it settles based on actual performance. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract always settles based on actual statistics. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with 'at least' payout criteria. Passing touchdowns do not count toward player totals, while team defense/special teams selections are settled on actual touchdowns without player participation exceptions.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professional oddsmakers, this market allows anyone to trade, potentially leading to a more accurate assessment of probabilities. It's common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to predict the same underlying event – the number of touchdowns in this NFL matchup – and often converge as the game approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the total number of touchdowns scored. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. This creates a fluid and responsive market where prices are driven by supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Washington versus San Francisco game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will then receive their payouts based on the final result and the contracts they held at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Washington or San Francisco would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive matchups could cause traders to reassess probabilities. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price movements in this market.