TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It examines different thresholds of interception counts to evaluate risk and performance metrics for each player. The outcome depends entirely on the in-game actions of the quarterbacks.
The event evaluates whether designated quarterbacks, Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels, record specific minimum numbers of passing interceptions in the Washington vs San Francisco Pro Football game scheduled for October 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different interception threshold (1+, 2+, or 3+) for each quarterback. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. All markets operate independently, and the resolution for each depends solely on the interceptions attributed to the respective quarterback against the specified threshold.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks may also adjust lines to balance betting action, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different interception totals. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges, as traders on Kalshi incorporate data and analysis independently. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing interceptions. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information surfaces, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time forecast. The closer we get to the game, the more these prices will likely converge as uncertainty decreases and the market reflects a more refined understanding of the potential interception count.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions thrown in the Washington versus San Francisco game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective determination of the result. Traders will then be able to see which outcomes were correctly predicted and receive payouts accordingly. It’s important to monitor news leading up to the game as any changes to starting quarterbacks or weather conditions could impact the final result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key quarterbacks on either team are crucial, as a change in starter could drastically alter interception probabilities. Weather forecasts also play a role; inclement weather often leads to more errant passes and potentially more interceptions. Unexpected news regarding defensive strategies or changes in coaching personnel could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking information about player matchups or specific offensive/defensive schemes could cause substantial movement in the market leading up to Oct 20, 2026.