TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 9:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment in a college football game between Washington and Purdue. It centers on performance during the second quarter, measuring which team will achieve a decisive lead within that timeframe.
The market resolves based on the point differential between Washington and Purdue exclusively during the second quarter of their game scheduled for October 16, 2026. Each outcome represents a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory, ranging from narrow leads of over 2.5 points to dominant wins exceeding 10.5 points. Only points scored in the second quarter count toward resolving these markets. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which are often set by experts. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public perception and marketing into their odds, while this market is driven purely by individuals wagering their own capital. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges or as public sentiment shifts, offering a distinct perspective on the likely outcome. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd disagrees with professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of participants. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the actual second quarter spread will fall within the range represented by that contract. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust predictions in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second quarter spread of the Washington vs Purdue game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The contract corresponding to the correct spread will pay out $1.00, while other contracts will expire worthless. The precise spread will be determined by official game statistics and verified against reliable sources.
Several factors could influence the Washington vs Purdue spread between now and game day. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause significant movement in this market. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse playing conditions, could also impact predictions. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced by either team could also shift the market. Finally, any significant public betting patterns observed at sportsbooks might influence traders on Kalshi to reassess their positions.