TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Warriors vs. Kings
Volume:
$11,673,999
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 10 at 10:00PM ET: If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the Kings win, the market will resolve to "Kings". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive, detailed resolution criteria across 42 distinct markets with specific thresholds, timing rules, and edge-case handling. Kalshi provides only a single binary market with incomplete resolution logic that fails to specify how to handle the outcome or which platform's data serves as the authoritative source.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market without clarification. Kalshi's market is fundamentally unresolvable as written because it does not specify: (1) what constitutes a valid 'win' (final score? playoff advancement?), (2) which official source determines the result, (3) how to handle postponements or cancellations, or (4) whether overtime counts. Polymarket markets are fully specified and resolvable. If you hold Kalshi positions, request an amendment or clarification from Kalshi before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Provides 42 granular markets with explicit resolution criteria including moneyline, spreads, over/unders, first-half variants, and player prop overs/unders. Each market specifies: exact threshold (e.g., 'Warriors win by 12 or more points'), source (NBA.com official box score), scope (full game including overtime), and edge cases (postponement keeps market open; cancellation resolves 50-50; inactive players resolve No). Example: 'This market will resolve to Warriors if the Warriors win the game by 12 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Kings.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Provides a single binary market with no resolution criteria specified. The market states only 'If Golden State wins the Golden State at Sacramento professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sacramento wins the Golden State at Sacramento professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility: both outcomes resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. No source, threshold, timing, or edge-case handling is provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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