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$154.5b
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 2:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment in a college football game between Wake Forest and NC State. It centers on which team will have a lead at the end of the third quarter and by how many points, offering various point spreads to bet on.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between Wake Forest and NC State exclusively at the end of the third quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Each market specifies a different point spread threshold, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, for either team to win by in that quarter. If Wake Forest meets or exceeds the specified spread, the corresponding 'Wake Forest wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes; if NC State does so, the respective 'NC State wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these outcomes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve based on the official third-quarter result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. You may find that this market’s odds diverge from sportsbook odds, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster and more efficiently than sportsbooks in response to relevant developments, though both attempt to predict the same ultimate outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price movements. The current price indicates what a trader would need to pay to take a position betting on a specific spread, and conversely, what they would receive for selling that position.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread of the Wake Forest versus NC State football game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports authority. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual spread at the end of the 3rd quarter. The final price on Kalshi will reflect the accuracy of the crowd’s predictions.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Wake Forest or NC State would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact the market. Furthermore, any shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or betting trends, could lead traders to adjust their positions, thereby moving the price. Game-day developments during the first half could also have a substantial effect.