TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of a college football game between Wake Forest and NC State. It allows participants to speculate on whether one team will outscore the other by a specific margin during that quarter.
The markets resolve based on the point differential exclusively during the second quarter of play in the Wake Forest vs NC State college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold, with varying margins favoring either Wake Forest or NC State. If Wake Forest wins by exceeding the designated point margin in the second quarter, the relevant 'Wake Forest wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if NC State achieves the required margin, the corresponding 'NC State wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the actual second-quarter result. If the game fails to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their beliefs about the likely outcome. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when considering the collective intelligence of informed traders. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and discrepancies can present opportunities for arbitrage.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the result. The more traders who believe Wake Forest will cover the spread, the higher the price of contracts representing that outcome will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time assessment of the event's probability.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the 2nd quarter of the Wake Forest vs NC State game will be used to determine which side of the spread wins. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available following the conclusion of the game. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Wake Forest or NC State would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's style of play, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or internal issues could impact trader sentiment. Public perception, fueled by expert analysis or social media trends, can also play a role in driving price fluctuations in this market.