TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 7:53 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Iva Ivanova and Federica Urgesi in the W50 Stara Zagora, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iva Ivanova' if Iva Ivanova advances against Federica Urgesi. This market will resolve to 'Federica Urgesi' if Federica Urgesi advances against Iva Ivanova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Iva Ivanova and Federica Urgesi in the W50 Stara Zagora, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iva Ivanova' if Iva Ivanova advances against Federica Urgesi. This market will resolve to 'Federica Urgesi' if Federica Urgesi advances against Iva Ivanova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. If a significant number of people believe an outcome is more likely than a sportsbook suggests, the prediction market odds will adjust accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of money has been traded on Polymarket.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more shares are traded, the price fluctuates, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market's efficiency depends on the volume of trading and the information available to participants, all of which are visible on the dashboard.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Iva Ivanova vs Federica Urgesi match as reported by the governing body of the W50 Stara Zagora tournament. The platform will then determine the winning share(s) and distribute payouts accordingly. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and accurate outcome for all traders involved in this market.
Several signals could move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategy, or even weather conditions impacting the match could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving either Iva Ivanova or Federica Urgesi could also shift perceptions of their relative strengths. Furthermore, significant trading volume from informed participants could trigger price movements, as others react to their actions. Monitoring these factors can provide insights into potential shifts in the market’s probabilities.